$750,000. Three years. Zero carbon credits.

And it stopped being shocking by interview five, because nearly every one of the 25+ people we interviewed had a version of the same story.

This was a six-month research engagement with ILRI (CGIAR) across the African carbon sector. The pattern underneath all of it:

Proving carbon savings is real costs $50,000 to $150,000 per project. The smallholder farmers in those projects earn a few hundred dollars a year.

Verification eats the value before it reaches the farm.

Most people hear this and conclude carbon markets are broken.

I read it as one of the biggest open opportunities in climate-tech.

Africa’s carbon market could grow 20x by 2030, reaching $6B annually (ACMI).

A bank already cracked it for trees: Rabobank’s ACORN cut verification costs 80 to 90% with satellite imagery, bringing smallholder farmers in Kenya and Uganda into carbon markets.

Livestock account for 70% of Africa’s farm emissions and have almost no tech behind them.

That’s the gap on the card up top. The market figured out trees. Nobody has built it for cows.

Whoever does doesn’t just sell software. They unlock the supply side of a market that currently can’t afford to prove itself.

Building in climate-tech with Africa on your roadmap? Finding out what’s actually true on the ground before you commit capital is the work we do. This report is a sample of it.

It’s free on CGSpace. Link in the comments.